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Is 1-2-3-4-5-6 a bad lottery pick?
It looks too orderly to ever come up. Its odds are exactly the same as any other ticket's. What changes is how many people you'd share the prize with.
Two tickets, one chance
A lottery machine can't tell a pattern from a jumble
Every combination has the same odds of winning, but not the same odds of being shared. The balls don't know which combinations look random to people. 1-2-3-4-5-6 has the same 1-in-28,989,675 chance as any other pick in a 6-of-55 game. But many players choose patterns, birthdays, and multiples. When the Philippines' Grand Lotto drew 9-18-27-36-45-54, the multiples of 9, on October 1, 2022, 433 tickets matched and split the ₱236 million jackpot.
Two different questions hide in "Is this a good pick?": how likely is it to win, and what is a win worth? Whenever many people make the same choice, the second question can matter as much as the first.
Try it somewhere else
A town's most popular brunch spot has the best food. Everyone else in town agrees.
If the food is just as good at the place down the street, which one gives you the better Sunday morning?
Popular numbers to avoid sharing
Patterns that people favor include straight lines and shapes on the ticket, multiples (7, 14, 21...), and dates, which crowd the numbers 1 to 31. In the UK National Lottery's early years, thousands of people were reported to choose 1-2-3-4-5-6 in a single draw, and one draw's winning numbers were shared by 133 jackpot winners. Choosing unpopular numbers can't improve your odds of winning, only your share if you do.
Related exhibits
Sources: Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office Grand Lotto 6/55 draw of October 1, 2022 (433 winners, ₱236,091,188.40 jackpot): ABS-CBN News, Philippine Daily Inquirer. Odds computed as the number of 6-number combinations from 55. UK National Lottery patterns: Plus Magazine (University of Cambridge), "The UK National Lottery: a guide for beginners."